0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
21 comments
304 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
2 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.64 paths
3 comments
27 forecasters
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
203112%
20261%