Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
44 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25%chance
5% this week
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
7 comments
91 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%