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At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

18

103

103 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

329

329 forecasters

30%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27% chance

36

468

468 forecasters

27%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

41

41 forecasters

Will there be a global-level mechanism for distribution of benefits of AI before January 1, 2030?

2% chance

-2

50

50 forecasters

2%chance

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57% chance

-1

31

31 forecasters

57%chance

Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?

1% chance

2

41

41 forecasters

1%chance

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11% chance

4

50

50 forecasters

11%chance

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

6

24

24 forecasters

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

9

29

29 forecasters

When will AI arrive?

2

Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?

1% chance

-4

23

23 forecasters

1%chance

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

39% chance

60

424

424 forecasters

39%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems

52.7 (38 - 67.8)

9

59

59 forecasters

52.7

(38 - 67.8)

Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?

0.1% chance

16

161

161 forecasters

0.1%chance

Donating Tournament Prizes

8

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?

83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)

3

18

18 forecasters

83.2M $

(54.3M - 133M)

Human-Level Language Models

36

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?

165M $ (68M - 493M)

4

21

21 forecasters

165M $

(68M - 493M)

How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?

428 $ (231 - 744)

11

24

24 forecasters

428 $

(231 - 744)

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 10 Analyses Say

1