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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

6

24

24 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Key Findings from Frontiers in Disease Prevention with Coefficient Giving

6

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?

449 $ (264 - 739)

11

24

24 forecasters

449 $

(264 - 739)

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

44

44 forecasters

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

9

29

29 forecasters

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

60% chance

29

29 forecasters

60%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?

83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)

3

18

18 forecasters

Resolved93.391526M $

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

14

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance

Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

41.5% chance

1

1 forecaster

41.5%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

By 2030, will 50% or more of GiveWell's top charities include a WELLBY-based cost-effectiveness analysis alongside or instead of DALY-based analysis?

%chance

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

33.5% chance

3

3 forecasters

33.5%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)

2

2 forecasters

0.726 0-100% stated probability

(0.684 - 0.767)