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Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

5

27

27 forecasters

When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?

26 Nov 2024 (12 Oct 2023 - 23 Dec 2027)

8

15

15 forecasters

26 Nov 2024

(12 Oct 2023 - 23 Dec 2027)

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 Winners!

5

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?

10

10 forecasters

Suggest questions to launch

120

2.8k 2.8k comments

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

Open Sourcing Metaculus

20

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

52

52 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

40% chance

61

431

431 forecasters

40%chance

How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?

83.2M $ (54.3M - 133M)

3

18

18 forecasters

Resolved93.391526M $

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10% chance

35

294

294 forecasters

10%chance

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

9

29

29 forecasters

Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

41.5% chance

1

1 forecaster

41.5%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

36.7% chance

3

3 forecasters

36.7%chance