0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
12 comments
69 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
14%chance
11% this week
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?
75%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
14 comments
64 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%