0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
12 comments
69 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
14%chance
11% this week
Key Factors
14 comments
121 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
resultNo
14 comments
64 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%