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26
comments
43
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%
chance
9%
this week
‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week
17
43
43
comments
Five Years After AGI
20
comments
287
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
4
comments
15
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
19.2%
52
comments
279
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
10%
chance
6
comments
16
forecasters
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Latest estimate
5011
This question is closed for forecasting.
3
comments
35
forecasters
Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a "top charity" before 2027?
43%
chance
1
comment
20
forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
142M $
5
comments
21
forecasters
Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?
0.1%
chance
5
comments
7
forecasters
Will GiveWell fund or recommend grants for the following interventions before January 1, 2027?
Community-Based Maternal and Neonatal
80%
HPV Vaccination to Prevent Cervical Cancer
70%
SMS Reminders for Vaccination
69.8%
16 others
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