21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance
4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
17.3%
23 comments
413 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%chance
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%chance
100 comments
451 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
50%chance
52 comments
282 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
10%chance