0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
14 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
20%chance
10% this week
21 comments
306 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
6 comments
15 forecasters
Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?
67%chance
7% this week
2 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
1 comment
20 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
142M $