4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
17.3%
21 comments
300 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
5% this week
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance
23 comments
413 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%chance
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%chance