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107 forecasters

At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 โ€“ August 2025)

10
22 comments

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments
8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
14 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

20%chance
10% this week

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

5
11 comment
44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance
21 comments
305 forecasters

Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
6 comments
49 forecasters

Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?

60%chance
7% this week

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121
2.8k2.8k comments
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