44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
21 comments
305 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.87 paths
4 comments
21 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Current estimate
31.2%
100 comments
451 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
50.8%chance