21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
7 comments
92 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
23 comments
413 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%chance
4 comments
12 forecasters
On June 30, 2027, where will most of Metaculus' impact come from?
Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)30%
Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)26%
Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally20%
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%chance