3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
12 comments
69 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
15%chance
10% this week
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
95 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit83%
Government20%
Non-profit5%