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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
2 comments
10 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

1 comment
1 forecaster

What share of the popular vote will each party receive in the next South African general election (2029)?

African National Congress (ANC)Upcoming
Democratic Alliance (DA)Upcoming
Mkonto weSizwe (MK)Upcoming
0 comments
7 forecasters

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will a SCOTUS decision weakening donor disclosure rules for political spending or electioneering communications be good law in the following years?

0 comments
6 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

0 comments
2 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

0 comments
4 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

0 comments
4 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

6 comments
32 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election?

Labourresult: Yes
Progressresult: No
Conservativeresult: No