Will any FAA-certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city before Jan. 1, 2027?15% chance33 comments2323 forecasters15%chance
When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?Jul 2034 (Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)266 comments88 forecastersJul 2034 (Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?>28 Dec 2030 (04 Nov 2029 - >28 Dec 2030)294848 comments158158 forecasters>28 Dec 2030 (04 Nov 2029 - >28 Dec 2030)
Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?15% chance114545 comments7070 forecastersAmbiguous
Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?1% chance71010 comments8989 forecasters1%chance