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Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

50% chance

50%chance

When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

30 Jul 2028 (09 Dec 2027 - 07 Mar 2030)

30 Jul 2028

(09 Dec 2027 - 07 Mar 2030)

When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?

>28 Dec 2030 (24 Apr 2030 - >28 Dec 2030)

158

>28 Dec 2030

(24 Apr 2030 - >28 Dec 2030)

Will any FAA-certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city before Jan. 1, 2027?

11.6% chance

11.6%chance

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

>Dec 2034 (May 2034 - >Dec 2034)

>Dec 2034

(May 2034 - >Dec 2034)

Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?

15% chance

Ambiguous

Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?

result: no

ResolvedNo

Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?

1% chance

1%chance

Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?

result: no

ResolvedNo

Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?

Will any FAA-certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city before Jan. 1, 2027?

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?

Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?

Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?

Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?

Will any FAA-certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city before Jan. 1, 2027?

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?

Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?

Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?

Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?

Space Sector ‘Greenification’

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market