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0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments
24 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

30%chance
10% this week
164 comments
350 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate
16 Apr 2027

Key Factors

16 comments
197 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2%chance
23 comments
397 forecasters

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

resultNo
126 comments
224 forecasters

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

resultNo
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodรณw incident before 2024?

Annulled
0 comments
92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

158 comments
903 forecasters

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

resultNo