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US Democracy Index

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Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

90 comments

89 forecasters

Will the interest in “ukraine” change between 2025-10-14 and 2025-10-22 according to Google Trends?

Increasesresult: Yes

Doesn't change56.1%

Decreases19.4%

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?

90%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

163 comments

349 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

22 Mar 2027

Key Factors

15 comments

195 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

1.1%chance

158 comments

903 forecasters

Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?

resultNo

126 comments

224 forecasters

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

resultNo

7 comments

86 forecasters

Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?

resultYes

Key Factors