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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

34.8
babies

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering

result64.21

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

Nov 2033

By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?

55%chance

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

21
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

Embryo gene editing45.9%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)32.3%
Neither/Other21.8%

When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?

Aug 2036