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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

5%chance

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

70.5
deaths per 100k
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

23 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

12%
12%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
7 comments7
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

resultNo

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

resultNo

Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

9%chance

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo