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[PRACTICE] What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae

43.49%

-1

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

[PRACTICE] What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

[PRACTICE] What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Revealed

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Revealed

no comments0

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Resolved :Ambiguous8.97k

42 forecasters

4 comments4

Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1

condition

Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?

7 forecasters

if yes

if no

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

189

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

200

13 comments13

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

22%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2 comments2

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

146 forecasters

1 comment1

Ragnarök Series

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.28

41 forecasters

51 comments51

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

Resolved :No10%

122 forecasters

16 comments16

Pandemic Series (2018)