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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?