• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

70%chance
20% this week

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

203644%
203020%
20261%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

5%chance
2% this week

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

38%chance
17% this week

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance