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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?