• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

3 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ukraine Conflict Update for 2022-4-5

12
3 comments3
Ukraine Conflict

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam73%
Taiwan72%
and 9 others

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives