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Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-25

9
3 comments3
Ukraine Conflict

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States55%
China35%
Israel10%
and 6 others

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1%chance

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

result118.88

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00