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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

12%chance
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

6 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

8%
8%
1 comment1

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

no comments0

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

6
6 comments6
Nuclear Risk Tournament