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Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran65%
Saudi Arabia14%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

11
1 comment1
The Taiwan Tinderbox