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Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

46%chance
8% this week

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

6
6 comments6
Nuclear Risk Tournament

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-25

9
3 comments3
Ukraine Conflict

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

India51%
Israel30%
Russia10%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%chance

Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?

91%chance
6% this week