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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%chance
13% today
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

12%
12%
1 comment1

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

5%chance
7% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

no comments0

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict