• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

5%chance

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?

resultNo

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

Ambiguous

If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?

Ambiguous

What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?

result0.948

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

59.8%