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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

A Global Catastrophe This Century

23
2 comments2
Metaculus Journal Archives

A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips?

resultNo

Numerical question updates

14 comments14
Metaculus Meta

Most useful forecastint tools/data sources

26
33 comments33
Metaculus Meta

What distributions would you like?

9
28 comments28
Metaculus Meta

The black swan

16
56 comments56

Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?

resultYes

Using monthly vs yearly data for estimates

1 comment1

Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range

KBCs are the bestresult: Yes
KBCs are the bestAmbiguous
KBCs are the bestresult: No

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

46
20 comments20
Metaculus Meta