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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.6%
Nathan Young win18.4%
Other4.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

≥56result: Yes
1-25result: No
26-45result: No
and 1 other

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Nov 2031

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

What will be the ranking of the All-In podcast on the Spotify Podcast Charts on June 28, 2025?

Forty-first through fiftiethresult: Yes
Twenty-first through fortiethresult: No
Fifty-first through sixtiethresult: No
and 2 others

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

73%chance
4% this week