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Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

2
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

17%chance
23% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

70%chance

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

What will be the lowest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz between June 15, 2025 and September 1, 2025?

33.9
tankers
773.3 percentage points this week

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

22%chance

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

16 Dec 2028

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00013%

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?

resultYes