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Nov 1 Update: Prize Pool Increase! Forecast With GiveWell: Share Insights > Earn Prizes
13
no comments
0
Forecast With GiveWell
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
15.7
1
3 comments
3
When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
Closed
6
19 comments
19
How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?
Closed
5
7 comments
7
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Closed
4
5 comments
5
Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?
≥3%
45%
≥5%
25%
5
2 comments
2
Forecast With GiveWell
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32%
17
8 comments
8
Platform feature suggestions
110
2.7k comments
2.7k
Metaculus Meta
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
45%
Microsoft
28.6%
Meta
20%
13 others
5
8 comments
8
Future of AI
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
2028
30%
2026
27%
2025
16%
1 other
7
21 comments
21
Effective Institutions Project
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