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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

25%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

2%chance

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%chance

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

26%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

49%chance

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

6
6 comments6
Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

1%chance

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?

74%chance

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

11
1 comment1
The Taiwan Tinderbox