Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments328328 forecasters
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?5 bots (4 - 6)24040 comments114114 forecasters5 bots (4 - 6)
Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?95% chance1010 comments4343 forecasters95%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?23 Aug 2027 (10 Sep 2026 - 14 Dec 2029)224672672 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters23 Aug 2027 (10 Sep 2026 - 14 Dec 2029)
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)0 comments55 forecasters8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)
In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?377 comments2626 forecasters
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?10% chance599 comments115115 forecasters10%chance
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?131919 comments8686 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396565 comments254254 forecasters97%chance
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?80% chance41313 comments172172 forecasters80%chance
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?65% chance966 comments4747 forecasters65%chance
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?30 Sep 2027 (12 Jul 2026 - 06 Jun 2030)968080 comments647647 forecasters30 Sep 2027 (12 Jul 2026 - 06 Jun 2030)
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?07 Aug 2031 (20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)388 comments1111 forecasters07 Aug 2031 (20 Dec 2029 - Dec 2034)
Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?5% chance766 comments149149 forecasters5%chance
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?49% chance22 comments1313 forecasters49%chance