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Last Call: Labor Automation Comment Prize Closes September 1

2

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

20% chance

2

51

51 forecasters

20%chance

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

95% chance

21

21 forecasters

95%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

173 173 comments

281

281 forecasters

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

29 Dec 2026 (13 Oct 2025 - 16 Aug 2028)

12

69

69 forecasters

29 Dec 2026

(13 Oct 2025 - 16 Aug 2028)

Which model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on July 12, 2026?

116 116 comments

115

115 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

38

471

471 forecasters

30%chance

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96% chance

257

189 189 comments

3k

3k forecasters

96%chance

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

98% chance

5

212

212 forecasters

98%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Apr 2033 (29 Jun 2029 - Dec 2040)

220

653 653 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Apr 2033

(29 Jun 2029 - Dec 2040)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

25 Sep 2028 (26 Jan 2027 - Jul 2032)

224

628 628 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

25 Sep 2028

(26 Jan 2027 - Jul 2032)

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

50% chance

5

34

34 forecasters

50%chance

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

98% chance

23

23 forecasters

98%chance

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

3

98

98 forecasters

Winners of the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup

3

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

47

47 forecasters

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

71.6% chance

4

148

148 forecasters

71.6%chance

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 07:10 - 20 May 2028)

2

20

20 forecasters

18 Apr 2027

(02 Sep 2026 07:10 - 20 May 2028)

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

98% chance

33

177

177 forecasters

98%chance