0 comments
86 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
33%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?
resultYes
Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.
0 comments
10 forecasters
Will any model achieve a 40%+ performance on Humanity’s Last Exam by September 1, 2025?
resultYes
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
5 comments
37 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
18%chance
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
0 comments
48 forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
11.3