0 comments
98 forecasters
Will a major streaming platform publicly confirm the use of a GNN-based recommendation system before 2026?
15.7%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
0 comments
104 forecasters
Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?
15.5%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
14% this week
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025)
Latest estimate
173k GPUs
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Microsoft Azure13%