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How many papers submitted to arXiv in July and August 2026 will mention agentic reinforcement learning in their abstracts?

215 papers (126 - 315)

136

136 forecasters

215 papers

(126 - 315)

Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

129

129 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in July 2026?

31.1% chance

144

144 forecasters

31.1%chance

Which model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on July 12, 2026?

115

115 forecasters

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

14% chance

90

90 forecasters

14%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

56

56 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

57

57 forecasters

What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

105 105 comments

109

109 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2: Can You Beat the Market and the Crowd?

7

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

98% chance

4

201

201 forecasters

98%chance

What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?

41% (19.3 - 66.5)

3

59

59 forecasters

41%

(19.3 - 66.5)

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

90% chance

4

68

68 forecasters

90%chance

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

74.4 (68.9 - 80.7)

35

35 forecasters

74.4

(68.9 - 80.7)

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

22 forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

14 Jul 2028 (28 Nov 2026 - Jul 2032)

223

621 621 comments

1.7k

1.7k forecasters

14 Jul 2028

(28 Nov 2026 - Jul 2032)

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

8

66

66 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

41

41 forecasters

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

2

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

14

38

38 forecasters