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Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

16%chance

59% this week

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

result23.19

Key Factor

Progress faster than previous year

What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

2 comments2

AI Pathways Tournament

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

May 2033

4.4 years this week

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

33%chance

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

Key Factor

Key Factor

What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

Key Factor

Key Factor

What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?