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The Next Spot Scoring Date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index is July 15

6
0 comments

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

66 comments
88
88 forecasters

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

17
4141 comments
84
84 forecasters

Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

15% chance

6
33 comments
44
44 forecasters
15%chance

Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?

57% chance

10
33 comments
44
44 forecasters
57%chance

What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

7.34 (6.73 - 7.98)

9
77 comments
37
37 forecasters
7.34
(6.73 - 7.98)

When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?

Nov 2053 (Aug 2040 - Aug 2072)

18
99 comments
51
51 forecasters
Nov 2053
(Aug 2040 - Aug 2072)

When will North Korea become a democracy?

Mar 2076 (Mar 2049 - 2130)

17
1111 comments
54
54 forecasters
Mar 2076
(Mar 2049 - 2130)

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.35 (6.56 - 8.14)

15
1111 comments
57
57 forecasters
7.35
(6.56 - 8.14)

Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?

86.2 (81.9 - 90.7)

25
2525 comments
83
83 forecasters
86.2
(81.9 - 90.7)

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

23
2020 comments