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Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

24 comments

80 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

50%chance

8% this week

Key Factors

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments

11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance

15 comments

23 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Current estimate

61.6%

0 comments

98 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Latest estimate

46.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%

OpenAI21.2%

Anthropic18.2%

8 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

7 comments

34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%

2 or 341.8%

4 or 510.6%

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.