• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🌍✨
AI Pathways Tournament
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🔮
Vox's Future Perfect
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Key Factor

Many robots (including humanoids) prices are already under 20000

33%chance

Key Factor

Many robots (including humanoids) prices are already under 20000

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

5%chance
3% today

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

14%chance
5% today

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

US may actively oppose AI safety agreements

60%chance

Key Factor

US may actively oppose AI safety agreements

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

10%chance

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

20%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Feb 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

Dec 2030
4.5 months this week

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

75%chance
14% this week

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

85%chance
15% this week