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When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?

Jan 2073 (Jun 2052 - >2100)

25
2525 comments
156
156 forecasters
Jan 2073
(Jun 2052 - >2100)

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Nov 2047 (Mar 2040 - Aug 2058)

20
1111 comments
99
99 forecasters
Nov 2047
(Mar 2040 - Aug 2058)

What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?

Oct 2039 (Nov 2035 - Aug 2044)

2
1111 comments
3
3 forecasters
ResolvedJun 2039 UTC

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

Aug 2041 (Mar 2034 - Nov 2053)

41
3030 comments
256
256 forecasters
Aug 2041
(Mar 2034 - Nov 2053)

Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?

result: no

9
1919 comments
89
89 forecasters
ResolvedNo

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

13
77 comments
32
32 forecasters

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Ambiguous

48
4646 comments
138
138 forecasters
Ambiguous

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

Feb 2046 (Jan 2036 - Jul 2060)

27
3939 comments
77
77 forecasters
Feb 2046
(Jan 2036 - Jul 2060)

Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?

result: no

44
1616 comments
375
375 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?

25% chance

44
4848 comments
339
339 forecasters
25%chance