Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?10% chance144 comments1010 forecasters10%chance
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396666 comments257257 forecasters97%chance
When will P = NP be settled?Aug 2065 (Jan 2036 - >2121)1488 comments5050 forecastersAug 2065 (Jan 2036 - >2121)
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)32929 comments3333 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)
When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?04 Feb 2027 (06 Oct 2026 - 17 May 2030)161414 comments6868 forecasters04 Feb 2027 (06 Oct 2026 - 17 May 2030)
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?May 2035 (06 May 2028 - Dec 2059)242626 comments6868 forecastersMay 2035 (06 May 2028 - Dec 2059)
In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?377 comments2626 forecasters
Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?2% chance122 comments99 forecasters2%chance
Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?58% chance3988 comments182182 forecasters58%chance
Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?4% chance1366 comments7070 forecasters4%chance
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?20 Jul 2026 02:35 (15 Jun 2026 - 06 Sep 2026)102727 comments3131 forecastersResolved16 Jul 2026 12:00 UTC
Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?62.1% chance466 comments1919 forecasters62.1%chance
When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?Aug 2044 (25 Feb 2030 - 2118)141717 comments7777 forecastersAug 2044 (25 Feb 2030 - 2118)
When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?May 2043 (06 Jul 2030 - 2080)151212 comments7777 forecastersMay 2043 (06 Jul 2030 - 2080)
When will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved true?>2121 (>2121 - >2121)433 comments1616 forecasters>2121 (>2121 - >2121)
When will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved false?10 Jan 2028 (26 Sep 2026 - Jun 2036)433 comments1414 forecasters10 Jan 2028 (26 Sep 2026 - Jun 2036)
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?99% chance241212 comments143143 forecasters99%chance
When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?19 Apr 2028 (21 Sep 2026 - Jan 2033)2222 comments3939 forecasters19 Apr 2028 (21 Sep 2026 - Jan 2033)
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?555 comments2727 forecasters
Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?result: no91010 comments8787 forecastersResolvedNo