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When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

16 Oct 2026 (26 Dec 2025 - 14 Jan 2028)

42

302

302 forecasters

16 Oct 2026

(26 Dec 2025 - 14 Jan 2028)

When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?

20 Jul 2026 22:56 (16 Jun 2026 - 06 Sep 2026)

10

31

31 forecasters

20 Jul 2026 22:56

(16 Jun 2026 - 06 Sep 2026)

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

40% chance

37

235

235 forecasters

40%chance

When will the remaining six Millennium Prize problems be solved?

11

24

24 forecasters

Will AIMO announce that its $5 million IMO-gold grand prize has been won before August 1, 2026?

15% chance

1

94

94 forecasters

15%chance

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)

3

25

25 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - Jan 2034)

How many problems solved by AI will the official FrontierMath Open Problems index show on May 1, 2026?

119 119 comments

118

118 forecasters

Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?

result: no

9

87

87 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?

02 Sep 2030 (26 Sep 2028 - Oct 2034)

16

62

62 forecasters

02 Sep 2030

(26 Sep 2028 - Oct 2034)

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?

31 Aug 2027 (11 Jun 2026 - Dec 2031)

22

51

51 forecasters

31 Aug 2027

(11 Jun 2026 - Dec 2031)

When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition?

11 Jan 2028 (10 Aug 2026 - May 2032)

22

39

39 forecasters

11 Jan 2028

(10 Aug 2026 - May 2032)

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

42.4% (40.5 - 47.8)

2

22

22 forecasters

42.4%

(40.5 - 47.8)

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

72.5 (54.6 - 86.4)

10

10 forecasters

72.5

(54.6 - 86.4)

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

95% chance

24

140

140 forecasters

95%chance

Announcing the 2026 Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Winners!

18

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

6

24

24 forecasters

In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?

3

24

24 forecasters

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?

result: no

38

38 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?

75% chance

3

5

5 forecasters

75%chance

What will be the total awarded grand-prize sum for XPRIZE Healthspan?

2

4

4 forecasters

Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?

result: yes

7

49

49 forecasters

ResolvedYes

How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?

11.3 (8.92 - 14.3)

2

18

18 forecasters

ResolvedMore than 20