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45
comments
233
forecasters
Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?
10%
chance
Key Factors
Political repercussions
test2
Institutional and doctrinal hurdles
65
comments
1.4k
forecasters
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
10%
chance
Key Factors
Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.
The Heritage Foundation, along with more than 100 anti-abortion and other extremist organizations, has issued Project 2025, a plan that includes using federal government aspects to destroy access to abortion.
In 2024, 166 House Republicans, roughly three-quarters of the conference, signed on to legislation for a nationwide abortion ban, indicating strong support within the party.
6
comments
29
forecasters
In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?
Current estimate
52.5%
43
comments
263
forecasters
Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?
result
Yes
17
comments
1.1k
forecasters
Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?
4%
chance
6
comments
56
forecasters
Will Lawrence v. Texas be overturned by 2030?
12%
chance
28
comments
42
forecasters
By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?
result
No
1
comment
8
forecasters
Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?
66.7%
chance
23
comments
96
forecasters
How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
Current estimate
9.11 seats
13
comments
33
forecasters
When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
Current estimate
26 Jul 2026
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