Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments316316 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.311 comment
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?53% chance233 comments9191 forecasters53%chance
Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?40% chance44 comments6060 forecasters40%chance
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?75 (70.6 - 79.3)10 comments4545 forecasters75 (70.6 - 79.3)
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments5050 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11313 comments2424 forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?15% chance242626 comments1.5k1.5k forecasters15%chance
If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?22% chance122626 comments9797 forecasters22%chance
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?65.6 (53.1 - 78)422 comments3131 forecastersResolved69.22
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?43% chance39101101 comments472472 forecasters43%chance
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?60% chance33 comments2929 forecasters60%chance
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?36.7% chance0 comments33 forecasters36.7%chance
Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?result: yes55 comments2020 forecastersResolvedYes
When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?17 Jun 2030 (20 Aug 2028 - >01 Jan 2031)22 comments88 forecasters17 Jun 2030 (20 Aug 2028 - >01 Jan 2031)
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?24.5 (13 - 38.2)422 comments3535 forecastersResolved57.68
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?3.72 (1.54 - 6.78)41010 comments3737 forecastersResolved30.31