6 comments
12 forecasters
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?
Germany50%
Italy30%
Australia50%
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
14 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
20%chance
10% this week
44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
21 comments
304 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
92 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
resultNo