Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?41184184 comments286286 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?22% chance122626 comments9797 forecasters22%chance
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?36.7% chance0 comments33 forecasters36.7%chance
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11313 comments2424 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?75.7 (72.1 - 79.4)10 comments4242 forecasters75.7 (72.1 - 79.4)
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?43% chance39101101 comments472472 forecasters43%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4747 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?12% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters12%chance
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?65.6 (53.1 - 78)422 comments3131 forecastersResolved69.22
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?42% chance1533 comments8686 forecasters42%chance
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?3.72 (1.54 - 6.78)41010 comments3737 forecastersResolved30.31
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?60% chance33 comments2929 forecasters60%chance
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?95% chance311010 comments147147 forecasters95%chance
Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?result: yes55 comments2020 forecastersResolvedYes
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?24.5 (13 - 38.2)422 comments3535 forecastersResolved57.68
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?15% chance242626 comments1.5k1.5k forecasters15%chance