Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374545 comments470470 forecasters28%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments331331 forecasters30%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?60% chance33 comments2929 forecasters60%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4343 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?75.6 (71.5 - 79.5)10 comments4141 forecasters75.6 (71.5 - 79.5)
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?16% chance242626 comments1.5k1.5k forecasters16%chance
Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?33% chance44 comments5454 forecasters33%chance
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?95% chance311010 comments146146 forecasters95%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?36% chance1533 comments8686 forecasters36%chance
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?36% chance255 comments8888 forecasters36%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?13% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters13%chance
If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?25% chance122525 comments9696 forecasters25%chance
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?5% chance23030 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?50% chance38101101 comments470470 forecasters50%chance
Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?1% chance-455 comments2323 forecasters1%chance
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?4.5% chance1099 comments8484 forecasters4.5%chance