Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
3 comments
36 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
46.4%chance
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
43 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25%chance
5% this week
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
25 comments
1.2k forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
16%chance
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
25%chance
