21 comments
301 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
25 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
15%chance
44 comments
433 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
4 comments
46 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
40%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
resultNo
7 comments
92 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
6 comments
12 forecasters
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?
Germany65%
Italy20%
Australia66%