Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?95% chance311010 comments146146 forecasters95%chance
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11111 comments2121 forecasters
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?74.4 (69.7 - 78.8)10 comments3737 forecasters74.4 (69.7 - 78.8)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments328328 forecasters30%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?10% chance242626 comments1.5k1.5k forecasters10%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments469469 forecasters25%chance
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments3636 forecasters
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?42% chance1533 comments8585 forecasters42%chance
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?60% chance-133 comments2929 forecasters60%chance
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?34% chance255 comments8686 forecasters34%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?13% chance42626 comments5151 forecasters13%chance
By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?result: no141010 comments6767 forecastersResolvedNo
Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?29% chance244 comments2222 forecasters29%chance
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?5% chance23030 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems52.7 (38 - 67.8)944 comments5959 forecastersResolved39.19
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments278278 forecasters
In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?65.6 (53.1 - 78)422 comments3131 forecastersResolved69.22