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Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

7%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown

3
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?

1%chance

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance