26 comments
41 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
20%chance
13% this week
5 comments
12 forecasters
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?
Germany71%
Italy25%
Australia55%
43 comments
422 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
20%chance
2 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
46.4%chance
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2 comments
6 forecasters
When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?
Current estimate
>Jan 2031
20 comments
286 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%chance
