Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before January 1, 2027?19% chance211 comment2727 forecasters19%chance
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?65% chance143535 comments182182 forecasters65%chance
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?04 Apr 2029 (09 Jan 2028 - 21 Jul 2031)344747 comments174174 forecasters04 Apr 2029 (09 Jan 2028 - 21 Jul 2031)
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?56% chance255 comments2727 forecasters56%chance
Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?result: no588 comments7272 forecastersResolvedNo
How many award tranches will Elon Musk earn from Tesla’s 2025 CEO Performance Award by 2036?10 Targets reached (2 - 11)511 comment88 forecasters10 Targets reached (2 - 11)
What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?386k (359k - 448k)8585 comments3131 forecastersResolved336.681k
What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?357k deliveries (<350k - 372k)1010 comments7272 forecastersResolvedLess than 350k deliveries
Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?1% chance666 comments8585 forecasters1%chance
How many vehicles will Tesla report producing in each of the following years?422 comments1313 forecasters
When will Tesla deliver a new model cheaper than existing models?29 Jan 2028 (04 Mar 2027 - 17 Nov 2029)51111 comments1010 forecasters29 Jan 2028 (04 Mar 2027 - 17 Nov 2029)
In which year will Tesla officially unveil a new passenger vehicle, possibly called the Model 2, priced under $25,000?82222 comments2020 forecasters
When will Elon Musk cease to be sole CEO of Tesla?>01 Jan 2030 (16 May 2029 - >01 Jan 2030)999 comments1717 forecasters>01 Jan 2030 (16 May 2029 - >01 Jan 2030)
Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?result: no61010 comments123123 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?result: no103232 comments7171 forecastersResolvedNo
How many non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030?853k vehicles (<1 - 6.55M)51818 comments1717 forecasters853k vehicles (<1 - 6.55M)
How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?899k (753k - 1.08M)988 comments5555 forecastersResolved936k
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?56% chance866 comments4545 forecasters56%chance
How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?491k (475k - 508k)555 comments3131 forecastersResolved499.55k
What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?316M (151M - 477M)72828 comments4242 forecastersResolved270M
[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?result: no122323 comments4040 forecastersResolvedNo
What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?466M (248M - 718M)62525 comments3838 forecastersResolved331M