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US Democracy Index

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Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?

resultNo

22 comments

91 forecasters

Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?

55%chance

4 comments

29 forecasters

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

13 comments

62 forecasters

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?

62%chance

53 comments

483 forecasters

Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?

3%chance

Key Factors

25 comments

79 forecasters

What percentage of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050?

Current estimate

81.4%

2 comments

5 forecasters

Which car brand will have the highest owner satisfaction rating, according to the 2024 Consumer Reports Annual Auto Survey?

Rivianresult: Yes

Porsche32.8%

BMW23.7%

9 comments

9 forecasters

Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?

69%chance

44 comments

124 forecasters

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

Current estimate

11.2%

8 comments

38 forecasters

What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?

community

194

result

215.72