Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Natural Sciences

Environment & Climate

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

16 Jun 2028 (13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)

223

621 621 comments

1.7k

1.7k forecasters

16 Jun 2028

(13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

26 May 2029 (05 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

46

179

179 forecasters

26 May 2029

(05 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Jan 2033 (01 May 2029 - Dec 2040)

219

654 654 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Jan 2033

(01 May 2029 - Dec 2040)

When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?

30 Aug 2026 (26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)

12

12 forecasters

30 Aug 2026

(26 May 2026 - 20 Dec 2026)

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

85% chance

70

111 111 comments

530

530 forecasters

85%chance

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96% chance

256

188 188 comments

3k

3k forecasters

96%chance

When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?

Aug 2053 (Aug 2037 - 2076)

7

68

68 forecasters

Aug 2053

(Aug 2037 - 2076)

When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?

Aug 2031 (04 Jul 2029 - Oct 2034)

3

10

10 forecasters

Aug 2031

(04 Jul 2029 - Oct 2034)

When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

18 Feb 2024 (01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

14

37

37 forecasters

18 Feb 2024

(01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Ambiguous

2

5

5 forecasters

Ambiguous

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

55% chance

18

162

162 forecasters

Annulled

If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?

19% chance

10

54

54 forecasters

Ambiguous

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

26% chance

30

94

94 forecasters

Ambiguous

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.23 years (1.04 - 2.45)

6

43

43 forecasters

1.23 years

(1.04 - 2.45)

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

27 Mar 2026 (03 Feb 2025 - 20 Mar 2028)

11

99

99 forecasters

27 Mar 2026

(03 Feb 2025 - 20 Mar 2028)

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

result: no

4

82

82 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

result: no

48

177

177 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?

14% chance

17

193

193 forecasters

14%chance

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

60% chance

193

792

792 forecasters

Annulled