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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

28 Nov 2030 (03 Apr 2028 - Dec 2036)

221

670 670 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

28 Nov 2030

(03 Apr 2028 - Dec 2036)

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

97% chance

257

194 194 comments

3k

3k forecasters

97%chance

When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?

03 Jun 2031 (19 Nov 2029 - Oct 2034)

3

11

11 forecasters

03 Jun 2031

(19 Nov 2029 - Oct 2034)

When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?

Nov 2053 (Nov 2037 - 2076)

7

68

68 forecasters

Nov 2053

(Nov 2037 - 2076)

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

19 Jun 2029 (22 Jun 2027 - Apr 2033)

46

179

179 forecasters

19 Jun 2029

(22 Jun 2027 - Apr 2033)

When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

18 Feb 2024 (01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

14

38

38 forecasters

18 Feb 2024

(01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Ambiguous

2

5

5 forecasters

Ambiguous

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

55% chance

18

162

162 forecasters

Annulled

If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?

19% chance

10

54

54 forecasters

Ambiguous

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

26% chance

30

94

94 forecasters

Ambiguous

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Annulled

6

43

43 forecasters

Annulled

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

85% chance

70

111 111 comments

528

528 forecasters

85%chance

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

22 Apr 2026 (03 Mar 2025 - 20 Mar 2028)

11

99

99 forecasters

22 Apr 2026

(03 Mar 2025 - 20 Mar 2028)

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

result: no

4

82

82 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

result: no

48

177

177 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

60% chance

193

792

792 forecasters

Annulled