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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

03 Oct 2028 (29 Jan 2027 - Jun 2032)

224

624 624 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

03 Oct 2028

(29 Jan 2027 - Jun 2032)

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Annulled

6

43

43 forecasters

Annulled

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96% chance

256

189 189 comments

3k

3k forecasters

96%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Feb 2033 (13 Jun 2029 - Mar 2040)

219

653 653 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Feb 2033

(13 Jun 2029 - Mar 2040)

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

10 Jun 2029 (07 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

46

179

179 forecasters

10 Jun 2029

(07 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

86% chance

70

111 111 comments

528

528 forecasters

86%chance

When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?

01 Aug 2031 (04 Jul 2029 - Oct 2034)

3

10

10 forecasters

01 Aug 2031

(04 Jul 2029 - Oct 2034)

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

04 Apr 2026 (17 Feb 2025 - 10 Mar 2028)

11

99

99 forecasters

04 Apr 2026

(17 Feb 2025 - 10 Mar 2028)

When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?

Aug 2053 (Aug 2037 - 2076)

7

68

68 forecasters

Aug 2053

(Aug 2037 - 2076)

When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

18 Feb 2024 (01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

14

37

37 forecasters

18 Feb 2024

(01 Mar 2023 - 01 Sep 2026)

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Ambiguous

2

5

5 forecasters

Ambiguous

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

55% chance

18

162

162 forecasters

Annulled

If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?

19% chance

10

54

54 forecasters

Ambiguous

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

26% chance

30

94

94 forecasters

Ambiguous

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

result: no

4

82

82 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

result: no

48

177

177 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?

12% chance

17

193

193 forecasters

12%chance

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

60% chance

193

792

792 forecasters

Annulled