622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
34 comments
62 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
12%chance
7 comments
41 forecasters
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
Current estimate
1.29 years
8 comments
7 forecasters
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Current estimate
Jul 2036
5 comments
9 forecasters
When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?
Current estimate
24 Jan 2026
69 comments
174 forecasters
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
Current estimate
11 Apr 2029
16 comments
65 forecasters
When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?
Current estimate
May 2051
