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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

2
no comments0

Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool

4
4 comments4
Colombia Wage Watch

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Key Factor

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.

May 2033
10.1 years this week

Key Factor

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025!

22
22 comments22
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Apr 2034

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Key Factor

Favorites are close to the President, part of Together or Other

Forecast revealed in 14 hours

Key Factor

Favorites are close to the President, part of Together or Other

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

60%chance

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Key Factor

Signs of possible US military action.

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Key Factor

Signs of possible US military action.

condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

7%
7%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
1
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

What will the National Institutes of Health’s actual obligations be in these fiscal years?