Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

9 forecasters

Date that Google reports an AI reached CBRN uplift level 1?

Current estimate

05 Oct 2030

5 comments

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

27 comments

120 forecasters

Will Claude Mythos be released before Sep 2026?

80%chance

40% this week

Key Factors

Ambiguous corporate language may mislead release
Identity verification may enable Mythos release
US government interest adds release obstacles

3 comments

50 forecasters

Voter Turnout in 2026 Algerian Elections?

Current estimate

26.8%

Key Factors

2021 turnout reset baseline to low 20s
Recent voting figures were heavily revised

14 comments

135 forecasters

2026 Colombian Presidential Election Winner?

Iván Cepeda21%

Abelardo de la Espriella78.8%

Paloma Valencia0.1%

Another candidate0.1%

Key Factors

De la Espriella gaining street momentum
Violence depressing rural turnout
Desire for focus on security

4 comments

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

0 comments

27 forecasters

Will courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?

62%chance

2 comments

15 forecasters

What will be NSF's discretionary budget for FY2028?

Democratic Congress6.86B

Republican Congress5.95B

Split Congress6.46B

5 comments

7 forecasters

Rankings in the 2026 IMO?

China3.37

United States of America3.61

Republic of Korea4.5

Japan12.1

106 others

0 comments

27 forecasters

US Congress limits presidential war powers before Jan 3, 2029?

Democratic Congress46%

Republican Congress10%

Split Congress22%

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on Jan 20, 2029?

Democratic Congress20%

Republican Congress7%

Split Congress15%

0 comments

25 forecasters

Bill limiting abortion funding/access during the 120th Congress?

Democratic Congress1.9%

Republican Congress50%

Split Congress5%

0 comments

25 forecasters

Bill limiting tariff authority pass both chambers during the 120th Congress?

Democratic Congress60%

Republican Congress14%

Split Congress24%

0 comments

15 forecasters

# of confirmed Article III judges in 2027-2028?

Democratic Congress6.5

Republican Congress12

Split Congress10.7

29 comments

145 forecasters

US/EU restriction on data center grid before Sep 2026?

30%chance

4.3% this week

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will Trump be impeached again?

Democratic Congress75%

Republican Congress8%

Split Congress55%

0 comments

15 forecasters

U.S. Democracy Threat Index value for 2027-2028?

Democratic Congress39.9

Republican Congress43.6

Split Congress41.5

0 comments

30 forecasters

Will Trump declare a national emergency re election integrity?

29%chance

4% today

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will Missouri's 2026 Amendment 3 pass?

38.1%chance

0 comments

30 forecasters

Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?

Ohio44.5%

Nevada52%

Kansas34%

Iowa60%

13 others

0 comments

32 forecasters

Which party will win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Democrat38.4%

Republican57.6%

Other4%

0 comments

32 forecasters

Which party will win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election?

Democrat74.3%

Republican24.7%

Other1%

6 comments

2 forecasters

Confirmed deaths from Iran war 2026

Revealed

in 2 months

20 comments

101 forecasters

% of seats won by Prosperity in 2026 Ethiopian election?

Latest estimate

89.2%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Key Factors

africanews.com:
Ethiopia heads for one of 'least competitive' elections
ethiopiaobserver.com:
Elections will not be held in 46 constituencies across the Amhara and Tigray regions - Ethiopia Observer
thereporterethiopia.com:
Ethiopia Heads To Seventh Election Amid Unsettled Debates Over Security, Fairness | The Reporter Ethiopia