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US Democracy Index

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We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

1 1 comment

6 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

community

14 Nov 2025 00:27

result

13 Nov 2025 03:15 UTC

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

2 comments

1 forecaster

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

13 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

1 comment

12 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

30%chance

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 10 hours

0 comments

2 forecasters

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

2 forecasters

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Jeannette Jara24%

José Antonio Kast36%

Evelyn Matthei15%

1 comment

20 forecasters

We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?