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Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

11
no comments0
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Forecast the Minimum Wage in Colombia: $1,000 Prize Pool

2
2 comments2
Colombia Wage Watch

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Key Factor

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.

Aug 2032
8.6 years this week

Key Factor

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Mar 2034

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

53%chance
7% this week
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

68%
68%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
3
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

What will the National Institutes of Health’s actual obligations be in these fiscal years?

What will the National Institutes of Health’s budget be in these fiscal years?

When will Polymarket launch a token?

Key Factor

Economic Incentives

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Key Factor

Economic Incentives