Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

Occupation Forecast Pages

2 comments

8 forecasters

When will Claude Fable 5 next be publicly accessible?

9 comments

90 forecasters

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Current estimate

176 $

11 comments

76 forecasters

Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before Sept 2026?

73%chance

10% today

Key Factors

theitem.com:
What to know about the demining and escort mission that US allies want for the Strait of Hormuz - The Sumter Item
cbsnews.com:
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is "safe, secure and pristine." Shipping companies aren't convinced.
Opening for demining delays normal traffic

3 comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

0 comments

Next spot scoring date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index: July 15

6 comments

49 forecasters

NYSEARCA: ILS two-day loss >=$0.25 before Sep 2026?

20%chance

4 comments

60 forecasters

Will the US and India finalise a trade agreement before Aug 2026?

37%chance

Key Factors

China's leverage in supply chains

3 comments

7 forecasters

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)21.7%

Greater than 50% and less than 53%34.8%

Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%30.4%

Greater than or equal to 56%13%

11 comments

81 forecasters

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

3%chance

22% this week

Key Factors

Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Dai Dai's low initial chart position
Major performances at World Cup events

15 comments

84 forecasters

Will a 2026 World Cup match be delayed due to heat?

6%chance

13% this week

Key Factors

FIFA's stronger action threshold at 32°C
Open-air venues pose heat suspension risks
Air-conditioned stadiums for high-risk matches

0 comments

5 forecasters

U.S. District Judge E. Ross leave office before 2027?

50%chance

2 comments

4 forecasters

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor

Current estimate

>Jan 2034

20 comments

77 forecasters

Community beats Dylan Matthews in Summer 2026 Cup?

73.3%chance

6.7% this week

Key Factors

Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
vox.com:
Dylan Matthews Profile and Activity | Vox

5 comments

37 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

66%chance

4% this week

23 comments

129 forecasters

US attacks Cuba before 2027?

40%chance

Key Factors

Cuba lacks valuable assets to seize
American public opposes wider conflict
Russian intervention in blockade possible

2 comments

7 forecasters

OpenAI bankruptcy risk before 2028?

8%chance

1 comment

16 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy & Putin meet in person before September 1, 2026?

10%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat election?

Alternative for Germany (AfD)50%

Christian Democratic Union (CDU)50%

0 comments

20 forecasters

Will Save Our Bacon be enacted before July 2027?

25%chance

4 comments

4 forecasters

Non-superconducting below-threshold QEC before 2029?

61%chance

11% this week

Key Factors

Multiple well-funded non-superconducting teams are working on logical-qubit error correction in parallel
The criterion is stricter than most current "below threshold" claims, and peer review takes time

0 comments

22 forecasters

Will plant-based meat reach 10% of US retail meat sales before 2031?

7%chance

8% today

0 comments

15 forecasters

# of top labs with animal welfare in AI guidelines in 2034?

118.6%

223.3%

322.3%

416.7%

4 others

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will FURA add a new cultivated meat dish before July 2027?

42%chance