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Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes

Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?

resultNo

What will be the largest customer base of a single romantic AI companion before 2025?

Ambiguous

When will a top celebrity musician accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style?

result07 Mar 2025 13:00

Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?

resultNo

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?

resultNo

When will Google DeepMind's Gemini model be publicly released?

result06 Dec 2023 15:00

Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?

resultYes