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When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

community

18 Aug 2025

result

20 Jun 2025 00:01

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

20 comments

64 forecasters

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

community

26 May 2025

result

Annulled

2 comments

22 forecasters

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No

Metaresult: No

OpenAIresult: No

9 comments

90 forecasters

Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?

resultNo

54 comments

163 forecasters

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes

17 comments

33 forecasters

Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024?

OpenAI investors against OpenAI boardresult: No

Government antitrust against Microsoftresult: No

OpenAI against Microsoftresult: No

46 comments

199 forecasters

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

resultYes

21 comments

81 forecasters

Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?

resultNo

4 comments

When will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman's "advanced AI research team" release an AI model or launch a new feature for an existing AI model?

community

result

Annulled