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US Democracy Index

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At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

17 comments

33 forecasters

Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024?

OpenAI investors against OpenAI boardresult: No

Government antitrust against Microsoftresult: No

OpenAI against Microsoftresult: No

54 comments

163 forecasters

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes

14 comments

125 forecasters

Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?

resultNo

4 comments

When will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman's "advanced AI research team" release an AI model or launch a new feature for an existing AI model?

community

result

Annulled

46 comments

199 forecasters

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

resultYes

2 comments

22 forecasters

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

Inflectionresult: No

Metaresult: No

OpenAIresult: No

14 comments

121 forecasters

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

resultNo

18 comments

58 forecasters

Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?

resultYes

7 comments

50 forecasters

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?

resultNo