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Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?
Resolved :
Yes
10%
462 forecasters
33
36 comments
36
[Tutorial:] Will Metaculus have over one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016.
Resolved :
Yes
90%
79 forecasters
14
25 comments
25
Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device?
Resolved :
No
40%
10 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
Will an attack on the electrical grid cause an extended power outage for a major U.S. city?
Resolved :
No
5%
50 forecasters
7
3 comments
3
Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March?
Resolved :
Yes
75%
70 forecasters
15
16 comments
16
Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016?
Resolved :
No
38%
160 forecasters
47
23 comments
23
Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?
Resolved :
No
21%
66 forecasters
16
14 comments
14
Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?
Resolved :
Yes
64%
116 forecasters
47
32 comments
32
AI Demonstrations
Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
402 forecasters
132
42 comments
42
Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize be won by Feb 9th, 2017?
Resolved :
No
55%
58 forecasters
10
3 comments
3
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