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Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?
70%
74 forecasters
8
18 comments
18
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
46.88%
2 or 3
43.76%
4 or 5
5.21%
3 others
4
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
36.9%
371 forecasters
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
57%
230 forecasters
21
13 comments
13
Ragnarök Series
Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?
92%
150 forecasters
20
37 comments
37
Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?
2040
40%
2035
30%
2030
20%
1 other
5
no comments
0
Future of AI
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
4%
2030
2%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved :
Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
1%
1%
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
5%
5%
Resolved :
Annulled
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup