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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
60%
39 forecasters
8
5 comments
5
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
Tesla
17 Apr 2027
Any Service
29 Dec 2026
Waymo
16 Sep 2026
10
98 comments
98
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?
2030-01-12
75 forecasters
14
6 comments
6
AI Demonstrations
Will robotic/AI automation be essentially ignored in the primary races?
Resolved :
Yes
85%
53 forecasters
11
13 comments
13
Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?
Resolved :
No
67%
88 forecasters
11
12 comments
12
Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race?
Resolved :
Yes
96%
80 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?
Resolved :
Jan 1, 2025
2020-06-09
232 forecasters
50
23 comments
23
Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?
Resolved :
No
27%
122 forecasters
14
11 comments
11
When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?
Closed
2030-03-19
58 forecasters
12
11 comments
11
Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?
Resolved :
No
18%
127 forecasters
22
28 comments
28
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