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When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
2025-11-10
95 forecasters
26
37 comments
37
AI Demonstrations
What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?
Resolved :
-0.5
79 forecasters
17
19 comments
19
Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?
Resolved :
50.1
33 forecasters
6
17 comments
17
If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
86 forecasters
26
43 comments
43
How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?
Resolved :
12
23 forecasters
5
8 comments
8
Business of AI
How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?
Resolved :
26
16 forecasters
5
8 comments
8
Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
57%
19 forecasters
2
4 comments
4
AGI Outcomes