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Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?
2030
14%
2026
1.9%
2024
0.2%
1 other
5
26 comments
26
AGI Outcomes
Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?
Resolved :
Yes
284 forecasters
55
173 comments
173
Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
881 forecasters
137
370 comments
370
When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?
Resolved :
Jan 30, 2021
138 forecasters
34
88 comments
88
Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?
Resolved :
Yes
112 forecasters
9
18 comments
18
The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D
24
34 comments
34
When will Disneyland reopen?
Resolved :
Apr 30, 2021
94 forecasters
6
43 comments
43
LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?
Resolved :
659
78 forecasters
4
33 comments
33
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?
Resolved :
Dec 11, 2020
45 forecasters
11
24 comments
24
Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
78 forecasters
21
39 comments
39
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