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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?

131 forecasters

40

AI Demonstrations

A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious

5

AI ambiguity Series

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

3

Pandemic Series (2018)

Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?

181 forecasters

10

When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?

Resolved :Oct 2, 2018

160 forecasters

39

AI Demonstrations

A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?

5

When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?

16

What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?

3

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?

6