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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
26.15%
AI-Dystopia
23.86%
Singularia
18.46%
2 others
35
167 comments
167
AGI Outcomes
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
131 forecasters
41
21 comments
21
AI Demonstrations
A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious
Resolved :
No
54%
77 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
AI ambiguity Series
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?
Resolved :
No
35%
66 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
Pandemic Series (2018)
Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?
Resolved :
No
1%
181 forecasters
10
19 comments
19
When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?
Resolved :
Oct 2018
Jan 2021
160 forecasters
40
22 comments
22
AI Demonstrations
Will chess be "weakly solved" by 2035?
Closed
10%
204 forecasters
26
9 comments
9
A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?
Resolved :
No
37%
78 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
2.31k
63 forecasters
16
16 comments
16
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?
Resolved :
90.9
91.9
26 forecasters
3
1 comment
1
AI Technical Benchmarks
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