Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views?
Resolved :
No
20%
81 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?
Resolved :
Yes
75%
211 forecasters
13
23 comments
23
AI Safety
Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
189 forecasters
16
58 comments
58
AI Safety
Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?
No Restriction
Yes
Restricted Use for Specific Groups
No
Licensing for Use
No
4 others
11
40 comments
40
Regulation of AI
Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes?
31.7
7 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee