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Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
51%
26 percentage points this week
24 forecasters
-1
3 comments
3
AGI Outcomes
Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?
Resolved :
No
40%
129 forecasters
39
37 comments
37
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79%
89 forecasters
15
13 comments
13
On December 31, 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
85%
103 forecasters
16
25 comments
25
How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?
Resolved :
1.63k
1.62k
32 forecasters
2
10 comments
10
Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?
Resolved :
No
1%
70 forecasters
6
20 comments
20
Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
68%
58 forecasters
9
18 comments
18
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
1%
62 forecasters
4
10 comments
10
Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
38 forecasters
9
10 comments
10
Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
Resolved :
No
17%
65 forecasters
11
23 comments
23
Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy Series
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