Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

Frontiers in Disease Prevention Findings

9 comments

58 forecasters

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Current estimate

153 $

0 comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

5 comments

32 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

70%chance

5% this week

12 comments

68 forecasters

Will a 2026 World Cup match be delayed due to heat?

15%chance

4% today

Key Factors

FIFA's stronger action threshold at 32°C
Open-air venues pose heat suspension risks
Air-conditioned stadiums for high-risk matches

19 comments

75 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Chad Bianco0.1%

Steve Hilton4.6%

Katie Porter0.1%

Xavier Becerra95%

4 others

0 comments

17 forecasters

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

5%chance

8 comments

65 forecasters

"Dai Dai" vs "Waka Waka" on Hot 100?

21.8%chance

Key Factors

Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Dai Dai's low initial chart position
Major performances at World Cup events

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will Bass be reelected LA Mayor in 2026?

50%chance

3 comments

8 forecasters

How many screwworm animal cases will there be in the US before 2026?

Current estimate

58 animal cases

0 comments

4 forecasters

Will a CJP protest gather 20k participants before 2027?

50%chance

2 comments

4 forecasters

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor

Current estimate

>Jan 2034

15 comments

59 forecasters

UST 10Y in Q2 2026?

2 comments

10 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an S-1 with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

52%chance

3 comments

5 forecasters

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)20.9%

Greater than 50% and less than 53%33%

Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%33%

Greater than or equal to 56%13.2%

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will the US Senate pass an Iran war powers resolution before August 1, 2026?

18.4%chance

21 comments

65 forecasters

CL vs ES in Q2 2026?

5 comments

56 forecasters

GC vs ES in Q2 2026?

5 comments

54 forecasters

NVDA vs MSFT in Q2 2026?

5 comments

52 forecasters

NQ vs ES in Q2 2026?

5 comments

58 forecasters

NVDA vs AAPL in Q2 2026?

7 comments

54 forecasters

VIX biweekly maximum in Q2 2026?

38 comments

822 forecasters

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

22%chance

Key Factors

Watered down EO reduces likelihood

1 comment

57 forecasters

2026 WSOP Main Event winner total bracelets?

Current estimate

1.8 bracelets